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2024-12-13 11:33:46

Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the European banking industry will be in a difficult situation in 2025. The challenges they face include low interest rates, slow growth and prominent political uncertainty.Reaffirming that the army will be mobilized to expel all illegal immigrants, Trump's latest statement revealed more details. On December 12, local time, US President-elect Trump reiterated in an interview that he plans to use the army to the maximum extent permitted by law and promote large-scale expulsion of illegal immigrants. Trump called illegal immigrants "an invasion of the country" and promised to cooperate with federal resources, including the National Guard, to quickly implement deportation. It is reported that Trump plans to declare a state of emergency, allocate resources to support this action, and may build new facilities to resettle immigrants waiting for repatriation. He also stressed that he hopes to reduce the demand for detention facilities through rapid expulsion. The analysis pointed out that although the National Guard has been used to support border patrols before, including the Democratic and Republican parties, it has not directly participated in immigration law enforcement. This time, the Trump team plans to use the military to provide support in transportation, infrastructure construction and intelligence, but the arrest will be carried out by immigration officials. Trump also suggested in the interview that he would expel all illegal immigrants in the next four years. According to data from the US Department of Homeland Security, as of January 2022, there were about 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States, and this number may increase recently. In this regard, some studies believe that the full implementation of the plan is costly, or it will have a far-reaching impact on industries that rely on immigrant labor. On November 18, local time, US President-elect Trump confirmed on the social media platform that the US military would be mobilized by declaring the country into a state of emergency, thus expelling illegal immigrants from the United States. (CCTV News)It is a "cancer" of the capital market to punish and prevent financial fraud, which destroys the integrity foundation of the capital market and seriously infringes on the legitimate rights and interests of investors. In recent years, the regulatory authorities have further strengthened the punishment of financial fraud and intensified the all-round and three-dimensional accountability. Recently, the relevant person in charge of the Economic Crimes Procuratorate of the Supreme People's Procuratorate said at the "Symposium on Difficult Issues of Legal Identification of Financial Fraud" held by the Law School of Renmin University of China and the Law School of Central University of Finance and Economics that we should adhere to the "zero tolerance" requirement and continue to increase the punishment and prevention of financial fraud. In criminal accountability, we need to grasp three issues. First, under the latest statutory principles, we should strengthen the convergence of execution, and adhere to the principle that "all suspected crimes should be removed, the arrest should be made, and the prosecution should be prosecuted"; Secondly, under the premise of adhering to the strict main tone, the criminal policy of "tempering justice with mercy" should be fully and accurately implemented. Finally, adhere to the whole chain to punish and prevent financial fraud. In the next step, the judicial case-handling organ will further subdivide the situation with relevant departments, improve the lenient and strict standards, and unify the judicial standards for law enforcement. (Securities Daily)


The overall implementation of the personal pension system is more optimized. After two years of implementation in 36 cities (regions), the personal pension system will be officially launched nationwide on December 15th. On December 12th, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China, State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau, China Securities Regulatory Commission and other five departments issued the Notice on Full Implementation of Individual Pension System, which made it clear that from December 15th, 2024, all workers who participated in the basic old-age insurance for urban workers or urban and rural residents in China can participate in the individual pension system. China Securities Regulatory Commission said that the promulgation and implementation of the Notice is an important measure to implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Second and Third Plenary Sessions of the 20th Central Committee and accelerate the development of a multi-level and multi-pillar old-age security system, which is conducive to giving full play to the wealth management function of the capital market and building a sound policy system of "long money and long investment". At the same time, according to the requirements of the Notice, the China Securities Regulatory Commission timely optimized the product supply and included the first batch of 85 equity index funds in the personal pension investment product catalogue. Lou Feipeng, a researcher at China Postal Savings Bank, said that the Notice put forward targeted measures based on the situation encountered in the pilot, enriching the types of personal pension products, increasing the situation of receiving personal pensions in advance and effectively improving the personal pension system on the basis of the previous pilot, which will help attract investors to actively participate in personal pension-related investments. (Securities Daily)YiXixi sovereign bond yields in the euro zone rose by about 16 basis points at most. In 2024, the European Central Bank cut interest rates three times. The yield of French 10-year government bonds rose by 9.5 basis points to 2.987%, approaching the top of 3.032% on November 28th. US stocks briefly fell before the market, and reached a new low of 2.880% at 22:07 Beijing time (during the press conference of European Central Bank President Lagarde). The yield of Italian 10-year government bonds rose by 15.7 basis points to 3.348%, approaching the top of 3.410% on November 28th, and was on the rise all day, reaching a daily low of 3.218% at 21:56 (during Lagarde's press conference). Spain's 10-year bond yields rose by 11.6 basis points, while Greece's 10-year bond yields rose by 13.5 basis points.ECB source: A few policy makers initially agreed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.


Google: The first device equipped with Android XR is made by Samsung and will be available next year.CITIC Securities: It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. CITIC Securities Research Report believes that the Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing. On the whole, the policy level is fully aware of the grim situation that external pressure may increase significantly within next year, and has put forward a series of requirements such as stable growth, stable prices, stable employment and stable people's livelihood. From the perspective of fiscal policy, the amount of financial instruments supporting the real economy will be comprehensively increased, the government's disposable financial resources will be significantly improved, and the fiscal expenditure structure will be tilted to the marginal consumption of people's livelihood. From the perspective of monetary policy, the meeting called for the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, timely lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates. We expect the reverse repo rate to drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more.The previous crude oil futures 2401 contract closed up 1.51% at 545.40 yuan/barrel. Shanghai Gold closed down 0.59% and Shanghai Bank closed down 1.67%.

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